Future Cleantech Architects: Deep Dive

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Summary

What is Future Cleantech Architects? Future Cleantech Architects (FCA) is a climate innovation think tank based in Germany. Hard-to-abate sectors—such as heavy industry, firm power, and aviation—require significant technological advances to decarbonize yet are often neglected by funders and governments. FCA was founded in 2020 to close these innovation gaps by (i) engaging with policymakers to prioritize research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for these critical interventions and (ii) leading research consortia to advance scientific knowledge for these applications.
How could Future Cleantech Architects address climate change? FCA promotes and advances innovation in hard-to-abate sectors through policy advocacy, field building, thought leadership, and technical analysis. We think these activities will accelerate the transition towards clean industrial processes.
Future Cleantech Architects’ theory of change: FCA’s policy advocacy and field-building efforts are based on its technical analysis, which identifies innovation gaps and barriers to progress. We think the main outputs from FCA’s policy advocacy would be the EU increasing its funding for industrial decarbonization RD&D, implementing regulations that support low-carbon production, and enacting low-carbon procurement policies. We think its field-building work elevates neglected and important sectors and results in a) more money and talent directed towards high-impact decarbonization pathways and b) more knowledge, technical, and policy support accessible for producers to advance RD&D projects. Although FCA’s work has an EU focus, we think there is a strong argument for global spillover effects through policy leadership, trade regulations like the carbon border adjustment mechanism, and technological innovation.
What is Future Cleantech Architects’ cost-effectiveness? In 2024, we developed a highly subjective back-of-the-envelope calculation (BOTEC) to estimate the costs and impacts of FCA’s policy engagement for the third revision of the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive. Overall, we estimate that FCA is highly cost-effective. We have low confidence in the accuracy of this BOTEC, and focusing this calculation on one aspect of FCA’s policy engagement is unlikely to generalize to the organization’s overall cost-effectiveness. However, we view it as a positive input into our overall assessment of FCA.
Is there room for more funding? FCA has ambitious growth plans to double in size in 2025. Its expansion aims to build capacity to shape the agenda of the next EU policy cycle, expand its analytical and advocacy work on clean firm power, and grow its international reach by leveraging its connections to intergovernmental organizations and building a presence in key countries. We think FCA can productively absorb more funding based on this expansion plan.
Are there major co-benefits or adverse effects? We think the co-benefits and potential risks of FCA’s efforts are similar to those for the broader effort to decarbonize heavy industry—mainly, the co-benefit of improved air quality and uncertain effects on global employment.
Key uncertainties and open questions: Our key uncertainties include the degree to which FCA can absorb more funding, its ability to rapidly grow in size and work effectively in new regions, and the feasibility of ambitious climate legislation in the current EU policy ecosystem.
Bottom line / next steps: We classify Future Cleantech Architects (FCA) as one of our Top Nonprofits addressing climate change. We think FCA’s focus on and expertise in neglected areas in the climate mitigation portfolio fill a critical space in the civil society ecosystem. In addition, our impression is that FCA has been successful at folding this technical expertise into the EU policymaking process, thereby increasing the knowledge of policymakers and the effectiveness of policy vehicles. We also think FCA’s expanding international presence will benefit global climate discourse.